The Case for Sarkozy
Download the PDFOVER the past 25 years, France has fallen dramatically in terms of GDP per head from 6th to 17th place in the world. Even allowing for the social policies which are widely considered a measure of French well-being, such as health care, it ranked 16th, down from 8th in 1990, according to the 2005 United Nations Human Development Index. Furthermore, the loss of purchasing power has become a major national concern, and thousands of young French citizens have emigrated to find work abroad, especially in Britain. Without falling fully into the fashionable thesis of Le déclin français, there is no question that the economic, social and cultural challenges with which France is now wrestling demand clear and radical changes. Changes that will need decisive and visionary leadership.
Nicolas Sarkozy, leader of the Union pour un Mouvement Populaire (UMP), the inheritors of Gaullism, possesses a conviction and energy that has already persuaded much public opinion that he is the candidate best suited to bring about a “rupture” with the past and, as one of his slogans puts it: “to get France to face up to the truth”. According to the latest polls he enjoys a substantial margin over Ségolène Royal, the Socialist candidate, as regards credibility for ensuring growth, employment and reducing public deficits.
Most commentators consider that Sarkozy’s economic recipe is the most ‘Liberal’ ever put before the French electorate. His belief that they must acknowledge that “globalization is a fact”, and that opposing it is akin to “questioning the law of gravity”, marks an enormous break with entrenched opinion. A pragmatist, he argues that “the government must protect without being protectionist” by which he means such measures as ensuring “work pays” through exempting social contributions and wages on overtime and reducing taxes on firms that take on new labour. To a degree, his model is close to the British approach. But his emphasis in a range of speeches on the importance of education is matched by concrete ideas for liberalisation and reform, which go a good deal further than the measures undertaken by New Labour. And he retains a very Continental Liberal – as opposed to “Manchester Liberal” – belief in the role of government in investing in scientific research and development.
The Economist recently reflected this by suggesting, somewhat predictably, that he might be France’s Mrs Thatcher. Some Anglo-Saxon observers certainly seem to think, presumably on account of his record as Interior Minister, that, like her, he is an economic liberal but a social conservative. This is a mistake. Of course Sarkozy has been tough on illegal immigration and on crime generally; but upholding the rule of law is not necessarily illiberal. Moreover, the Continental Liberal tradition has been much more closely linked to the idea of the nation, and Sarkozy is a fervent advocate of the “Republican virtues”. For a French person living in Britain, it seems that British liberalism, which once prized multi-culturalism and a degree of cultural relativism, is now converging with French liberalism which stresses integration and ‘the Enlightenment consensus’.
I suppose Sarkozy’s real claim to be the Liberal candidate on Sunday is that he is seeking a convergence between Continental and British Liberal traditions. Proof of this is especially evident in his forays into foreign policy, where a clear reaching out to Britain is very much part on the agenda. He believes France has suffered from always seeking to oppose the United States, in the manner in which Britain has also suffered from consistently seeking to support the US, not least on Iraq. One can suggest that he would wish to work much closer with Britain, diplomatically, especially in the Middle East, and on defence, perhaps even nuclear defence. His commitment to Europe is combined with some scepticism as to whether the existing institutions of the EU can really “sustain France and her European partners in facing the challenge that the rise of Asia embodies”. Sarkozy seeks a more self-confident Europe, which he considers may be brought about by a rejuvenated France and a more European-minded Britain. All this is not to say that he does not also strongly emphasize the success of the Eurozone or France’s relationship with Germany.
Sarkozy’s victory may depend on whether voters desire real reform and policy content over the appearance of change. If he does win, France would have a leader who could reach out across the Channel in a manner not seen since Montesquieu.
Karine Lisbonne–de Vergeron, is a writer on European affairs for Chatham House
and a member of the UMP.
